China Announces Renewable Quata
On March 3rd, the National Energy Administration released “Guiding Opinions on Establishing Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards,” which set renewable energy consumption targets for China. The country aims to rely on renewable energy for 15% of total primary energy consumption by 2020, and 20% by 2030. Non-hydro renewables should produce 9% of consumed electricity by 2020. The Opinions break down the non-hydro renewable electricity consumption requirements for each province and region, shown below.
Based on the government 2020 forecasts for power consumption and renewable energy capacity, we made a few simple calculations.
|2020 Installed Capacity||2020 Annual Use-Hours||2020 Generation|
|Wind||250 GW||1728 hours||432 TWh|
|Solar PV||160 GW||1133 hours||181.3 TWh|
Sources: Renewable Energy Development 13th Five Year Plan (Draft Version); 2015 wind and solar generation statistics, NEA
Graph assumes 2020 generation patterns are similar to 2015. 2020 annual generation=Installed capacity*utilization hours. Annual use-hours (利用小时) is derived by dividing total generated electricity over the course of one year (GWh) by the total capacity of the generation fleet (GW).
Assuming that the overall capacity factors for wind and solar in China don’t change from 2015 levels (I’ll get to that in a moment), wind and solar together are expected to produce 613 TWh annually in 2020. The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates that the entire country will consume 7390 TWh in 2020, meaning that solar and wind generation would comprise about 8% of the total. Once you factor in biomass and other non-hydro renewables, you can just about expect to meet the Opinions’ target of 9% renewable electricity production nationwide by 2020.